Handicapping 2013 technology predictions
Summary: Windows 8 is out for enterprises, Chinese smartphone makers are in, big data jobs will outnumber qualified candidates around the world and Western economy IT pros will work for fast-growing Asia firms, according to Gartner.
Gartner outlined its top predictions for information technology for 2013 and beyond and the short version is that Windows 8 is out for enterprises, Chinese smartphone makers are in, big data jobs will outnumber qualified candidates around the world and Western economy IT pros will work for fast-growing Asia firms.
That's the takeaway from the latest set of predictions from Gartner for the year ahead. Here's a look at the 2013 predictions via Gartner analyst Daryl Plummer with a bit of a reality check.
Through 2015, 90 percent of enterprises will bypass broad Windows 8 deployments. The gist is that enterprises will sit on the Windows 8 sidelines.
Reality: Broad proclamations on Windows 8 are tough to make. Enterprises aren't going to go Windows 8 happy in 2013 because they want to see adoption elsewhere. If Windows 8 takes off, enterprise deployments will follow before 2015. Most companies will look toward Windows 9.
By year end 2014, three of the top five mobile handset makers will be Chinese.
Reality: Not much of a stretch given that Android is free and ZTE, Huawei and Lenovo are will all look abroad.
By 2015, 4.4 million jobs will be created by big data. Only a third of those jobs will be filled.
Reality: There's a data architect and scientist shortage. Colleges will take time to fill the talent pipeline. If universities started now, qualified grads wouldn't show up until 2016.
By 2014, EU directives will aim to protect drive and cut offshore outsourcing by 20 percent.
Reality: This protectionist move could happen, but all that means is companies in Germany and France will move more labor to Poland and Eastern European countries. India out. Eastern Europe in. No jobs created.
By 2014, IT hiring in Western markets will come from Asia-based companies.
Reality: The revenue growth would add up and a weak dollar means that the likes of Wipro, Infosys and others will hire IT pros in the U.S.
By 2017, 40 percent of enterprise contact information will have leaked into Facebook via mobile.
Reality: 40 percent sounds conservative.
Through 2014, employee owned devices will be compromised by malware at twice the rate of corporate owned devices.
Reality: Will there be any corporate owned devices?
Through 2014, software spending from smart operational technology will increase by 25 percent.
Reality: The Internet of things will meet big data. Spending boom ensues.
By 2015, 40 percent of global 1000 organizations will use gamification as primary vehicle to transform business operations.
Reality: Puhleeze. Gartner also thinks enterprise gamification spending will eclipse consumer gamification in 2013.
By 2016, wearable smart electronics will be a $10 billion industry.
Reality: Sign me up, but that's a big number.
By 2014, market consolidation will displace up to 20 percent of the top 100 IT service providers.
Reality: Tech execs at the Gartner powwow are actively seeking out smaller vendors. The big tech suppliers are viewed skeptically.